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TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2002
 
HERNAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH CONVECTION LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30
KTS FROM TAFB AND 45 KNOTS FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KNOTS IS COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE ESTIMATES.  HERNAN IS MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315/8.  HERNAN 
IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND SLOW DOWN WHEN IT BECOMES A 
MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW 
AT THAT TIME WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET GLOBAL 
MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 22.0N 123.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 22.9N 124.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.5N 125.2W    25 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     07/0000Z 23.8N 126.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     08/0000Z 24.0N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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