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TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 04 2002

CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE. INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD COOLER 
WATERS AND DISSIPATION COULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10 AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY THEN...HERNAN SHOULD BE 
A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LITTLE MOTION OR DRIFTING NORTHWARD. 

FORECASTER AVILA/NELSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 21.0N 122.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 22.0N 123.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N 124.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 24.0N 125.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 25.0N 125.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     07/1200Z 25.5N 125.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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