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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2002
 
HERNAN CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF COOLER WATER. THE EYE IS NO
LONGER CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND HERNAN IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.
 
HERNAN IS MOVING 295 DEGREES ABOUT 9 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NEAR
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AFTER 48 HOURS...HERNAN SHOULD
BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A DISSIPATING
HERNAN OR A WEAK REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO BE NEARING THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST OR NORTHERN BAJA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THIS AREA
WELL IN ADVANCE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 19.4N 120.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 121.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 27.0N 123.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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