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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2002
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SPECTACULAR ON SATELLITE IMAGES.
THERE IS A WELL DEFINED EYE THAT HAS BEEN SHRINKING DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  THE EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF VERY COLD TOPS.
T-NUMBERS HAVE LEVELED OFF AT 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING
WINDS REMAIN AT 140 KNOTS.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN THEREAFTER...AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS.
 
HERNAN CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ABOUT 10 TO 12 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TRACK ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS FORECAST AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/BURR
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 17.8N 112.8W   140 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W   145 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W   140 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N 118.5W   130 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W   120 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N 123.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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