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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002

ANOTHER INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE SATELLITE 
PRESENTATION OF HERNAN IS EXCELLENT. IT IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH A 
RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS 
BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MAXIMUM 
WINDS ARE NOW 105 KNOTS.  ALL INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HERNAN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  A GRADUAL
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE HURRICANE REACHES
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES A TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES.  BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED...
TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE 
MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA/BURR

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 15.9N 108.3W   105 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.3N 109.7W   110 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W   120 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W   115 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W   110 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 18.5N 119.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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