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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002

HERNAN HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MUCH 
BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES WITH 
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. BECAUSE T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE 
INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS 
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS.  ALL INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10 AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. HERNAN IS 
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED 
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST 
TO PERSIST...A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED 
DURING THE FEW DAYS. THIS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 15.3N 107.3W    90 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 15.7N 109.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.5N 110.8W   110 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 112.5W   110 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W   110 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 117.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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