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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002
 
WITH A LARGE COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES BRING HERNAN TO HURRICANE STATUS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED 
IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.  WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ARE 
EXPECTED TO ALLOW HERNAN TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  THE SHIPS MODEL 
BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 98 KT IN 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD STEER HERNAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE 
NEXT 72 HOURS AND ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS 
SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE 
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

A SHIP REPORT AT 06Z SHOWS 35 KT WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN 
COAST.  BUT SINCE HERNAN IS ALREADY AT ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH 
TO MEXICO...WINDS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE DECREASING.  
THIS SHIP REPORT IS ALSO THE BASIS FOR EXTENDING THE 35-KT WIND 
RADIUS AND 12-FT SEAS RADIUS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 15.3N 106.5W    70 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 15.9N 107.8W    80 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 16.6N 109.4W    90 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 17.3N 110.9W    95 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 17.9N 112.4W    95 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 18.7N 115.2W    90 KTS
  
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