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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF MANZANILLO HAS CONTINUED TO
GET BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING
FEATURES.  THUS THE AREA IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH ARE
T2.5 FROM SAB... T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM AFWA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT 290/4 SEEMS
REASONABLE OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS.  A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER MEXICO AND SHOULD PROVIDE A STEERING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME ACCELERATION AFTER 24 HOURS AS INDICATED BY BAM SUITE AND THE
GFS MODEL.
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE IN A FAVORABLE PLACE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS NEAR 29C.  GLOBAL
MODELS BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY TO ITS NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE
STORM.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 13.6N 103.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.8N 103.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     31/0600Z 14.2N 104.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 14.6N 106.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 15.1N 107.7W    55 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 16.6N 111.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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