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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH 
IS PRESENT ONLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HAS DECREASED 
FOLLOWING THE BURST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  ACCORDINGLY...DVORAK 
CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB..SAB..AND AFWA HAVE ALL DECREASED TO 
1.5...SUPPORTING THE OFFICIAL CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KT.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315/8...STEERED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY TO THE SOUTHWEST.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
THAT GENEVIEVE WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR ABOUT THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT 
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST 
IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN 
THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

GENEVIEVE IS TRAVERSING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 24 DEG C AND IS HEADED 
TOWARD EVEN COLDER WATERS...AND COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR 
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING.  SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS 
OF CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB/RHOME
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0300Z 21.8N 124.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 22.7N 125.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     01/0000Z 23.6N 126.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     01/1200Z 24.3N 128.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     02/0000Z 24.9N 129.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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