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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002
 
AFTER A BRIEF BURST EARLIER TONIGHT...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRETTY
MUCH DISAPPEARED.  THUS...THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC REASONING AS THE STORM
CONTINUES A 310/8 MOTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK WITH LESS OF A TURN TO THE LEFT AFTER 36 HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE BAM SHALLOW MODEL.
 
STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY WITH THE STORM MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS AND WITH SHEAR VALUES CONTINUING TO INCREASE.
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24-36 HOURS WITH ONLY A REMNANT LOW
REMAINING AFTERWARD.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 20.0N 122.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 20.7N 123.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     31/0600Z 21.7N 124.7W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     31/1800Z 22.7N 126.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     01/0600Z 23.7N 128.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     02/0600Z 25.0N 131.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
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