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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2002
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS CLARIFIED THE LOCATION AND MOTION OF 
GENEVIEVE...WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION BEING A LITTLE TOO 
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8.  GENEVIEVE IS 
MOVING AROUND AN UPPER LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN 
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
UNTIL THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY A 
LOWER-LAYER FLOW. 

DVORAK CI INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 AND 45 
KT...RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE T NUMBER ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 
KT.  USING A BLEND OF THESE GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  
GENEVIEVE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM AND THERE IS SOME SHEAR 
FROM THE UPPER LOW.  THEREFORE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED 
UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 19.0N 121.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 21.1N 123.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N 124.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     31/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     01/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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