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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2002
 
GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL 
MOTION OF 320/9...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO 
DETERMINE WITH IR IMAGERY.  SOME ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION 
AND MOTION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES 
AVAILABLE.  A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...WHICH NORMALLY 
YIELDS A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE WITH WEAKENING SYSTEMS THAN THE 
CI NUMBER...SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  A SCATTEROMETER PASS 
INDICATED WINDS WERE ALREADY DOWN TO 40-45 KT 13 HOURS AGO...AND SO 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT.

THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION IS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST 
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  
AS GENEVIEVE MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER 
SYSTEM IT SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARDS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 18.6N 120.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 121.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 123.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 21.5N 125.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     31/1200Z 22.0N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     01/1200Z 22.5N 132.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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