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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2002
 
LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATES GENEVIEVE HAS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. IT WOULD BE GENEROUS TO CALL THIS CONVECTIVE AREA 
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
TAFB...SAB AND AFWA REMAIN 65 KNOTS...BUT GIVEN THE RATHER RAGGED 
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED 
AT 60 KNOTS.
 
SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE 
LEFT...300/11. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS 
PACKAGE GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN 
SYNOPTIC REASONING AS GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST 
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND 
TURNS TO THE LEFT...MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
 
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPROVING AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AN INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR MAY BE LESSENING 
OVER THE SYSTEM. GENEVIEVE HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER 26-27C SSTS 
BEFORE CROSSING INTO COOLER WATERS. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR GENEVIEVE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THIS TIME
...BUT THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 12 HOURS AND GENEVIEVE IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE 
PERIOD. 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 17.2N 119.5W    60 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 17.9N 121.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 18.9N 122.7W    55 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.9N 124.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     31/0000Z 21.0N 126.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 22.5N 129.5W    25 KTS
 
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