[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2002
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT GENEVIEVE IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE STILL AT T4.0...65 KNOTS...BUT WITH 
THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED PATTERN THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 
MAINTAINED AT 60 KNOTS.
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING AS THE STORM
MOVES ON A NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD COOLER WATERS.  THIS APPROXIMATE
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND TURNS TO THE
LEFT...MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.
 
THE OUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE
SHEAR MAY BE LESSENING OVER THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR 
GENEVIEVE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER THE STORM HAS AT 
MOST 24 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE COOLER SSTS BELOW 26C.  LITTLE
NET CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH A STEADY WEAKENING
FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 16.9N 118.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N 119.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.2N 121.1W    60 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.4N 122.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.6N 124.3W    45 KTS
72HR VT     31/1800Z 23.5N 127.6W    30 KTS
 
 
NNNN


Webmaster