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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002
 
THE CYCLONE IS CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH PLENTY OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH
WITH 60 KT BEING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN TAFB/SAB AND AFWA ESTIMATES.
THE FINAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 1547Z SMMI PASS WHICH
SHOWS A FORMING EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN ON THE EASTERN SIDE.
 
GENEVIEVE HAS TURNED A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING AT
275/6.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW TO ITS WEST AND A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN
120W-125W IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.
 
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND
GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE IT RUNS
STRAIGHT INTO FAUSTOS COLD WAKE...AN AREA OF SSTS BETWEEN 24C-26C.
THIS MAY HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IDEA IS REFLECTED
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER 48 HOURS AS
THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 14.2N 115.2W    60 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 14.4N 116.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 15.0N 117.3W    80 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 16.1N 118.7W    75 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.3N 120.2W    75 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 123.4W    65 KTS
 
 
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