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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE 
CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING WITH A T3.5 FROM TAFB AND T3.0 FROM SAB. A 
1003 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS VERTICALLY ALIGNED 
WITH A POSSIBLE EYEWALL FORMING ON THE WEST SIDE.  THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON THIS DATA.

THERE APPEARS TO BE NO HINDRANCE TO STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS UNDER A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN AND WARM WATER.
HOWEVER AFTER 24 HOURS THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVER THE COOL WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY FAUSTO WHICH COULD PREVENT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF PREVIOUS
ONE...  270/6 AND THE CYCLONE COULD BE STARTING A TURN TOWARD THE
RIGHT.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
WEAKEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ALONG 120W.  THIS SITUATION SHOULD
INDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AFTER 12 HOURS.  THE FORECAST
TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO
THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 13.9N 114.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 14.0N 115.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 14.6N 117.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 15.4N 118.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 16.3N 120.1W    70 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 18.1N 123.2W    65 KTS
 
 
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