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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 26 2002
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP BUT SHAPELESS 
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH NO BANDING 
FEATURES.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 
KCWC...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  ON THIS BASIS THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO 
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE... PRONOUNCED JEN-AH-VEEV.

THE LACK OF FEATURES IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN MAKES THE INITIAL 
POSITION AND MOTION DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE 
FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED.  WITH A NOD TO CONTINUITY THE INITIAL 
MOTION IS SET AT 255/6.  THE SYNOPIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLICATED.  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...WHILE IN THE MID LEVELS A RIDGE 
APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE 
CYCLONE.  PERHAPS NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN 
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.  ON ONE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...THE GFDL 
SLOWS GENEVIEVE SHARPLY AND THEN BENDS THE TRACK TO THE NORTH- 
NORTHWEST...WHILE ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE AVN MAINTAINS A STEADY 
TRANSLATION SPEED WHILE ONLY SLOWLY TURNING THE TRACK TO THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST.  AS IT WAS WITH FAUSTO...THE AVN IS THE SOUTHERMOST 
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  WHILE THE AVN PERFORMED EXTREMELY WELL WITH 
FAUSTO...AND IN FACT IT HAS PERFORMED WELL IN THIS BASIN ALL 
YEAR...I WONDER WHETHER THE CURRENT APPARENT SLOWDOWN IS A CLUE THAT 
THE GFDL MIGHT BE ON TO SOMETHING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
ADJUSTED A LITTLE SLOWER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
TRACK...BUT IS STILL CLOSER TO THE AVN THAN TO THE GFDL...AND CLOSE 
TO BOTH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS.  PERHAPS A LARGER ADJUSTMENT 
WILL BE MADE WHEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION CAN BE 
OBTAINED.

THE UPPER LOW ALSO COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AS IT DIGS 
SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF GENEVIEVE...IT COULD REACH A FAVORABLE 
RELATIVE LOCATION WHERE THE NORTHWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 
ENHANCED.  HOWEVER...THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL INCREASE THE 
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  FURTHERMORE...GENEVIEVE IS LIKELY TO 
ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS MIXED UPWARD BY FAUSTO.  THEREFORE...THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR UNENTHUSIASTIC STRENGTHENING...CLOSE TO 
BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 13.9N 113.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 13.7N 114.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 13.6N 115.9W    50 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 13.9N 117.2W    55 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 14.5N 118.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 121.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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