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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 26 2002
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC.
HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH. ALSO THE CENTER
LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH TAFB AND SAB POSITIONS 60 N MI
APART. I OPT TO DELAY UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STATUS
UNTIL THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. EXCEPT FOR A COOL POOL OF SSTS
NEARBY CREATED BY FAUSTOS WAKE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE WINDS TO 65 KNOTS
IN 72 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL MINUS A FEW KNOTS.
THE ADVISORY INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE TRACK MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST. THIS IS THE RESULT OF
THE STRONG EAST/WEST MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH DEVELOPING A
WEAKNESS NEAR 122W AT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 14.1N 113.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 27/0600Z 13.9N 114.4W 35 KTS
24HR VT 27/1800Z 13.6N 115.8W 40 KTS
36HR VT 28/0600Z 13.7N 117.1W 50 KTS
48HR VT 28/1800Z 14.1N 118.7W 60 KTS
72HR VT 29/1800Z 15.1N 122.0W 65 KTS
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