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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2002
 
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER UNCERTAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES 
AND THE CENTER MIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7.  THE AVIATION MODEL FAILS TO 
INITIALIZE THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 06Z.  THE GFDL MODEL HAS THE 
SYSTEM TURNING SOUTH...LOOPING AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWEST 
MOTION FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION...PROBABLY THE RESULT OF 
WEAKENING OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL CONCEPT AND IS 
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IT HAS 
BEEN SPORADIC AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR 
SLOW STRENGTHENING TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE IN 72 HOURS AND THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR.  AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE LATEST 
NCEP HIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSES SHOWS AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER 
WATERS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION... 
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAKE OF HURRICANE FAUSTO...WHICH COULD 
RETARD THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 14.7N 112.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 14.6N 113.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N 114.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 14.8N 117.4W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W    65 KTS
 
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