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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2002
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER UNCERTAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES
AND THE CENTER MIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7. THE AVIATION MODEL FAILS TO
INITIALIZE THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 06Z. THE GFDL MODEL HAS THE
SYSTEM TURNING SOUTH...LOOPING AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWEST
MOTION FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION...PROBABLY THE RESULT OF
WEAKENING OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL CONCEPT AND IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IT HAS
BEEN SPORADIC AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR
SLOW STRENGTHENING TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE IN 72 HOURS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE LATEST
NCEP HIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSES SHOWS AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAKE OF HURRICANE FAUSTO...WHICH COULD
RETARD THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 14.7N 112.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 27/0000Z 14.6N 113.2W 35 KTS
24HR VT 27/1200Z 14.5N 114.5W 40 KTS
36HR VT 28/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 28/1200Z 14.8N 117.4W 55 KTS
72HR VT 29/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W 65 KTS
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