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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2002

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OR
INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE IS MINIMAL UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...AND AN UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE EXERTING AN UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCE.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
STRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER THE LATEST NCEP HIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSES
SHOWS AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAKE OF
HURRICANE FAUSTO...WHICH COULD RETARD THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING.

THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL HAD TROUBLE INTIALIZING THIS SYSTEM AND SHOWS 
ONLY A NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH OVER THE DEPRESSION CENTER...EXTENDING 
TO A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE 
SOUTHEAST.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0123 UTC DID SHOW THAT THE 
CIRCULATION WAS ELONGATED TO THE SOUTHEAST SO THERE IS LIKELY A 
GRAIN OF TRUTH IN THE GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSIS.  IN ANY EVENT...THE AVN 
TRACKER WAS UNABLE TO FOLLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE FORECAST.  
THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE IS DIVERSE...AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A 
LOOPING MOTION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE PRESENCE OF A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST TAKES THE 
SYSTEM SLOWLY AND GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 15.0N 111.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 112.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 113.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 15.2N 115.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 15.5N 116.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N 120.0W    65 KTS
 
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