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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2002
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0000 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN
90 KNOTS.  THE AFWA 2331 UTC INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...100 KNOTS.  HOWEVER SINCE THAT TIME...THE OVERALL
APPEARANCE OF FAUSTO HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT WITH THE EYE BECOMING
CLOUD FILLED AND BARELY DISCERNABLE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  THUS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KNOTS FOR THIS PACKAGE.

FAUSTO CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...ABOUT 300
DEGREES AT 15 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE HURRICANE
REMAINS SITUATED SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 24N144W WITH INCREASING MID- AND UPPER- LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF 135W.  ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY STEERING
INFLUENCE BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...  A BEND TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY THE LATER PERIODS AS FAUSTO BECOMES A
SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVES MORE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...NEAR THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL WHICH WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECASTER STEWART/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 19.7N 130.0W    85 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 20.8N 132.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 22.2N 135.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 23.3N 138.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 25.0N 147.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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