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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2002

FAUSTO REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE ON 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SYSTEM IS ONLY SLOWLY 
WEAKENING DUE TO COOLING SSTS AS VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED A BIT WITH 90 KT BEING A GOOD 
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS CLASSIFICATION AGENCIES.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...ABOUT 
300 DEGREES AT 14 KT.  FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY 
UNCHANGED AS FAUSTO REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH.  A BEND TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE TRACK BY THE LATER 
PERIODS AS FAUSTO BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVES MORE WITH 
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO 
THE NORTH BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE 
...NEAR THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN.  

FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY WITHIN 24-36 HOURS AS UPPER 
CONDITIONS DEGRADE WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER FROM THE CENTER 
OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE 
STORM.  THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND IT WAS 
FOLLOWED FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  
 
34-KT WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND 
12-FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH 18 UTC SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE/BLAKE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 18.9N 128.5W    90 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 19.9N 130.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 21.2N 133.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 22.2N 136.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 22.9N 138.9W    30 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 24.4N 144.8W    25 KTS
 
 
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