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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2002

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER FAUSTO AS IT IS CROSSING THE 
26C SST ISOTHERM.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE DVORAK 
TECHNIQUE INDICATE A RANGE OF 100 TO 115 KT.  INTENSITY IS SET TO 95 
KT... ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES TO REFLECT LOWER T-NUMBER 
ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ASSESSMENT IS ABOUT 295/13 KT... A BIT FASTER 
THAN BEFORE.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SOUTH OF A WELL DEVELOPED 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS 
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG CLOSER TO THE STORM AFTER 24 
HOURS AND WILL INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE INCREASE IN 
SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE DECREASING SSTS SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID 
WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST 
REFLECTS THIS SITUATION AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 18.1N 127.2W    95 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.9N 129.1W    85 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 131.7W    70 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 21.2N 134.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 22.2N 137.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 23.9N 143.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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