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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2002
 
FAUSTO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A MAJOR HURRICANE 
WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN.  SUBJECTIVE 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM SAB 
AND AWFA.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AVERAGING JUST 
ABOVE T6.5 OR ABOUT 127 KT.  AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS 
INCREASED TO 125 KT. 

FAUSTO REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING BETWEEN 280 AND 285 DEGREES AT 
12 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAIN VIRTUALLY 
UNCHANGED WITH THE HURRICANE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF FAUSTO. THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL...WHICH AS 
STATED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL
WITH FAUSTO. 

FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER 
WATERS AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

FORECASTER BROWN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 15.8N 122.4W   125 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W   125 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.1N 126.6W   115 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.9N 129.3W   105 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.7N 131.8W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N 137.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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