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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2002

THE EYE OF FAUSTO BECAME BETTER DEFINED JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY WAS SENT.  AT ONE POINT...OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM THE TECHNIQUE DEVELOPED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN WERE
AS HIGH AS 125 KT.  SOME WARMING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE EYEWALL
HAS OCCURRED SINCE THEN.  HOWEVER...SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 102 KT...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
INCREASED TO 100 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 280 AND 285 DEGREES AT 14
KT.  AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...FAUSTO IS SOUTH
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT SHOULD STEER IT IN A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
THE DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SINCE ABOUT 15Z BRINGS UP
THE QUESTION OF WHETHER FAUSTO HAS PEAKED.  WHILE THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HURRICANE ARE NOW GRADUALLY COOLING...THEY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 12-24 HR.  ADDITIONALLY...FAUSTO IS WELL ORGANIZED AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE SCENARIO THAT THE CONVECTIVE
DECREASE IS TEMPORARY...POSSIBLY THE NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE...AND
THAT FAUSTO WILL INTENSIFY FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO BEFORE PEAKING.
AFTER 24 HR...THE UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
ENOUGH TO START A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 15.2N 118.6W   100 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.6N 120.6W   110 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.2N 123.2W   110 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.9N 125.9W   105 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.6N 128.4W    95 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 133.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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