[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2002
 
FAUSTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS 
SOME DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN NEAR 
THE CENTER SHOWS LITTLE BANDING.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS IN A 
BAND WELL AWAY FROM THE CORE AND PROPAGATING OUTWARD.  SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 35 KT.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...270/8.  FAUSTO 
IS SOUTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THERE IS A MODEST 
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
CYCLONE THAT COULD ALLOW A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...BUT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD BY BOTH THE AVN 
AND UKMET...SO THE OVERALL TRACK SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY WESTWARD 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NICELY 
CLUSTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY AND THE AVN.

EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR ONLY LIMITED 
STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS FAUSTO TO ONLY 58 KT IN 48 
HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL IS AT NEARLY 100 KT BY THAT TIME.  THE AVN 
INDICATES A SNEAK ATTACK...WITH SOME STRONGER 200 MB NORTHEASTERLY 
FLOW APPROACHING FAUSTO FROM BEHIND.  IN ADDITION...THE GLOBAL 
MODELS KEEP AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF 
FAUSTO...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN.  AS A 
RESULT...I HAVE NUDGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST TOWARD THE MORE 
CONSERVATIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 12.8N 109.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 12.8N 110.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 13.3N 112.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 13.7N 115.6W    60 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N 118.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.0N 124.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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