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TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL BANDING FEATURES NOTED
AS WELL AS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND 30 KNOTS FROM SAB. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KNOTS AND THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED 
TO TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08...IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS 
SPECIAL ADVISORY.  FAUSTO IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE MID-PACIFIC 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE 
AVN/GFS...AND THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS....AND TO THE LEFT 
OF THE GFDL AND DEEP LAYERED BAM.
 
FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS AND IN A 
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE SHIPS INTENSITY 
MODEL HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SHEARING IN 24 HOURS OR 
SO...ALTHOUGH UPON FURTHER EXAMINATION OF THE LARGE SCALE MODEL 
FIELDS IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THIS SHEAR IS COMING FROM. THE GFDL 
BRINGS FAUSTO TO A 100 KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL AND CALLS FOR 
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 HOURS...AND AN 85 KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 
HOURS. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN SUCH WARM WATER AND A FAVORABLE 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 12.8N 108.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 12.9N 109.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 13.0N 112.1W    50 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 13.1N 114.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 13.5N 117.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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