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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2002
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOWS UP QUITE WELL 
ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY...MOVING 325/12 WHICH IS THE INITIAL 
MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY 
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL BE 
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 14Z SHOWED JUST A SPOT OR TWO OF 30 KT 
UNCONTAMINATED WINDS AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SPUN DOWN 
A BIT SINCE THIS MORNING.  DEEP CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER 
HAS DECREASED IN SIZE DURING THE DAY...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE 
THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE AT 1.0-1.5...25 KNOTS.  THEREFORE...THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS.  COOLER WATERS AND 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL MEAN FURTHER WEAKENING AND THE DEPRESSION 
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. 

FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 19.4N 125.3W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N 126.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N 131.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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