[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2002
 
LATEST SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES PLACED THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMOST DUE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
POSITION...AND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED
ON THIS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED TO 330/11...ALTHOUGH THE
SHORT TERM MOTION IS CLOSE TO DUE NORTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT T.D. SEVEN IS BEING STEERED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 12-24
HOURS...CLOSE TO THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL...WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES AND IS
STREERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING INTO DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 18.6N 124.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.1N 124.9W    25 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.7N 126.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N 132.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N 138.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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