HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2002
 
LATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF T.D. SEVEN-E 
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE 
EXACT LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS INDICATED BY THE FAIRLY LARGE 
SPREAD IN FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE ADVISORY AND 
FORECAST POSITIONS ARE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC 
TRACK...AND FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE LATER 
TODAY WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 
300/9...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK 
IN RESPONSE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.  
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0...30 KNOTS...FROM TAFB 
AND SAB...AND 2.5...35 KNOTS...FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
WILL BE HELD AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  THE PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER 
THE DEPRESSION.  THIS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND PREVENT 
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL 36 HOURS WHEN THE 
EFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN 
THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 14.2N 121.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.3N 122.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.1N 124.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.3N 126.1W    30 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN