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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2002
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A HINT OF A BAND DEVELOPING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 0137Z INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE
1.5...2.0...AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY. ON THIS BASIS ADVISORIES ARE
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION. MODEL
GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS WITH GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY TRACKS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN MODEL.
THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING IS PRODUCING WESTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...SO
ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. CURIOUSLY...THE SHIPS
MODEL WANTS TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION TO 50 KT IN THE FACE OF NEARLY 30
KT OF SHEAR. AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DECREASING...SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER TOO
LONG.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 13.3N 120.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 06/1800Z 13.8N 122.0W 35 KTS
24HR VT 07/0600Z 15.2N 123.8W 35 KTS
36HR VT 07/1800Z 17.0N 125.6W 30 KTS
48HR VT 08/0600Z 19.1N 127.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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