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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 29 2002
THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE "TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY". THERE IS
SOME DEEP CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER BUT TWO RECENT SHIPS
NEAR THIS CONVECTION REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED FOR 03Z IS REDUCED TO 25 KNOTS. THE
DEPRESSION IS OVER SSTS LOWER THAN 20 DEG C AND THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.
ELIDA IS MOVING 345/12 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT SOME 12-FT SEAS PERSIST AND EXTEND
NORTHWARD 200 N MI FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 26.8N 128.1W 25 KTS
12HR VT 30/1200Z 28.6N 128.6W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 31/0000Z 30.8N 129.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 31/1200Z 32.5N 129.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/0000Z 33.5N 129.5W DISSIPATED
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