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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 28 2002
 
A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER EVEN 
THOUGH SSTS ARE NEAR 21 DEG C.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE 
FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS AND THE INITIAL OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED 
TO 40 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO AS THE 
SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING OVER COLDER WATER.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11.  ELIDA CONTINUES A GRADUAL 
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS FORECAST OF THE 
GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 21.8N 126.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 23.3N 127.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 25.1N 127.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     30/1200Z 26.7N 128.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     31/0000Z 28.5N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     01/0000Z 31.0N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
  
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