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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 28 2002

ELIDA HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN SO FAR TODAY.  THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN 
MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER.  THIS 
IS SURPRISING SINCE THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING SURFACE WATER TEMPS OF 
21-22 DEG C.  PERHAPS THERE IS SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT IS 
MAINTAINING INSTABILITY.  WHATEVER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY 
SPIN DOWN AND BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER IN THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS ELIDA WEAKENING FASTER THAN 
INDICATED HERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...310/11...IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN 
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING 
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS 
ONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS...CONTROL RUN AND 
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 21.2N 125.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 22.3N 126.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 24.0N 127.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 25.7N 127.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/1800Z 27.5N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     31/1800Z 30.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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