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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 28 2002
IN SPITE OF THE COOL 22-23 DEG C SSTS...ELIDA HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO
MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 50 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
HOLDING ITS OWN AT THIS TIME...COOLER WATERS SHOULD TAKE THEIR TOLL
ON THE STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND ELIDA IS LIKELY TO BE
REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN SHOWN HERE.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A
BLEND OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS...BAMM AND BAMS. BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.2N 124.4W 50 KTS
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.2N 125.4W 40 KTS
24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.7N 126.6W 30 KTS
36HR VT 30/0000Z 24.5N 127.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 30/1200Z 26.5N 128.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 31/1200Z 29.5N 128.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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