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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 28 2002

IN SPITE OF THE COOL 22-23 DEG C SSTS...ELIDA HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO
MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 50 KT.  EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
HOLDING ITS OWN AT THIS TIME...COOLER WATERS SHOULD TAKE THEIR TOLL
ON THE STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND ELIDA IS LIKELY TO BE
REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN SHOWN HERE.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A 
BLEND OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS...BAMM AND BAMS.  BY THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 20.2N 124.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.2N 125.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 22.7N 126.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 24.5N 127.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/1200Z 26.5N 128.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     31/1200Z 29.5N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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