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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 27 2002
 
ELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER. 
 THERE ARE A FEW OCCASSIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING AND 
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON 
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND TRENDS.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 48 
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE 
SHOWS A TURN BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 
72 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVLE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 18.8N 122.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.8N 124.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.3N 125.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 23.3N 126.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/0000Z 25.0N 127.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     31/0000Z 28.0N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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