ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 27 2002
ELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER.
THERE ARE A FEW OCCASSIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING AND
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND TRENDS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 48
HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVLE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 122.8W 50 KTS
12HR VT 28/1200Z 19.8N 124.2W 45 KTS
24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.3N 125.2W 35 KTS
36HR VT 29/1200Z 23.3N 126.2W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 30/0000Z 25.0N 127.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 31/0000Z 28.0N 127.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
NNNN
Problems?