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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002
 
ELIDA HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 6 HR...LIKELY
DUE TO CROSSING THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM.  THE EYE
HAS DISAPPEARED AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
115 KT FROM AFWA AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SINCE THE INTENSITY
ON THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WAS 90 KT...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE 
DECREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/11.  ELIDA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...A PORTION OF WHICH IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF
CALIFORNIA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT THE RIDGE WITH ELIDA GRADUALLY TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE TROUGH.  ALL GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER AGREES ON THIS 
SCENARIO...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST 18-24 HR.  SINCE
NEITHER THE MOTION NOR THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED...THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES ELIDA OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER...
WITH THE CENTER REACHING 19C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY 72 HR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS NEAR DISSIPATION BY 72
HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ELIDA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BEFORE 72 HR.


FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 16.7N 118.6W    85 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.6N 120.2W    75 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 18.7N 122.3W    65 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.2N 124.3W    50 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 22.1N 126.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 26.0N 128.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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