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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002
 
THE SMALL EYE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED ON VISIBLE IMAGES HAS BEEN
REPLACED BY A LARGE AND DIFFUSE EYE.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA WENT
THROUGH AN EYE WALL CYCLE. THE RING OF CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE IS
NOW WEAKENING AND CONSEQUENTLY THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING COOL WATERS...WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
 
ELIDA IS RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED AT ALL FROM
THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND WITH THE HELP OF A TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 16.3N 117.7W    90 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.2N 119.2W    80 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 18.3N 121.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 25.0N 128.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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