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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INTERMITTENT SMALL EYE AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN OUTER EYEWALL FORMING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST
WINDS OF 90 TO 100 KNOTS WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 100 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH ELIDA MAY GO THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
APPROACHING UNFAVORABLE COOL WATERS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY TODAY BUT THE GENERAL FUTURE TREND OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD BE FOR WEAKENING.
IT APPEARS THAT ELIDA HAS BEGUN THE TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND TRACK GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/11. ELIDA IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF ELIDA WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE NORTHWARD TURN. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 15.8N 116.5W 100 KTS
12HR VT 27/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W 95 KTS
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 120.0W 85 KTS
36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 122.5W 70 KTS
48HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 128.0W 30 KTS
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