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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2002
 
ELIDA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AND THE T-NUMBERS
INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS ABOUT 110 KNOTS. THE EYE HAS BEEN
INTERMITTENT AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS GOOD. ELIDA
STILL HAS A DAY TO RESTRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL...AS IT MOVES OVER WARM
WATERS. THEREAFTER...THE CIRCULATION WILL REACH COOLER WATERS AND A
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION AND ELIDA IS MOVING
280/14 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AS WELL AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 15.1N 113.3W   110 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W   100 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 16.5N 117.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.0N 119.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 125.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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