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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2002
 
AFTER REACHING 140 KNOTS...THE HURRICANE BEGAN TO WEAKEN AND BOTH 
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS 
HAVE DECREASED TO 120 KNOTS.  THE EYE CONTINUES TO BE DISTINCT AND 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE 
CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE BEEN WARMING FOR THE PAST FEW 
HOURS.  AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO WHICH COULD LEAD TO REINTENSIFICATION. 
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH TODAY.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS 
ELIDA APPROACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48 HOURS.

ELIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS GENERAL TRACK 
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BY THEN...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE 
RIDGE.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS 
AS WELL AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE 
TO THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 14.9N 111.8W   120 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 15.5N 114.0W   120 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 116.5W   110 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 124.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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