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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2002
 
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING.  ELIDA HAS AN ESTIMATED 10
NMI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
UNFORTUNATELY...I DO NOT HAVE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO MEASURE THE
EXACT EYE DIAMETER AND THE MAX WIND RADII.  ELIDA HAS ALSO WELL
DEFINED BANDING FEATURES...WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW AND OBJECTIVE T-
NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 AND 6.5 DURING THE 6 TO 8 HOURS.
THIS CORRESPONDS TO WINDS OF AT LEAST 125 KNOTS.  FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AND WILL PROBABLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH 
EYEWALL THERMODYNAMICS BUT MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE FLUCTUATIONS IN 
INTENSITY.  SHIPS MODEL BRINGS ELIDA TO 157 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS BUT 
THIS VALUE IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD PERSISTENCE.  

ELIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE 
PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS 
FORECAST TO PERSIST AND IT WOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL 
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 13.3N 107.3W   125 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.4N 109.3W   135 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 13.5N 111.5W   140 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W   140 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 14.5N 117.0W   130 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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