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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2002

ELIDA HAS BROKEN ALL THE DVORAK RULES. IT HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY 
SINCE YESTERDAY AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.0 PLUS WITH OBJECTIVE 
NUMBERS REACHING 6.5 DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE SHEAR IS LOW 
AND THE OCEAN IS WARM THUS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. 
HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION AT THIS STAGE GOES BEYOND THE LARGE SCALE 
ENVIRONMENT AND IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH EYEWALL 
THERMODYNAMICS. A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON 
SCALE IS RARELY FORECAST BUT WITH THE OBSERVED TREND AND THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 140 KNOTS 
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ALSO 
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 157 
KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  

ELIDA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 
WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
PERSIST AND IT WOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK 
THROUGH 72 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY 
THEREAFTER AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
RIDGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK 
GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 12.8N 105.7W   120 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 12.9N 108.0W   130 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 13.0N 110.0W   140 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 13.0N 112.5W   140 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 13.5N 115.5W   130 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N 120.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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