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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002

ELIDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CLASSICAL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST/OUTER BAND PATTERN AND CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 24/0037 UTC SHOWED
A BANDING EYE FORMING UNDER THE OVERCAST....AND THE LATEST INFRARED
IMAGE SHOWS A POSSIBLE EYEWALL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CDO.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 55 KT...AND THAT
WILL BE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17.  ELIDA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH SOME SPREAD BETWEEN
WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FORECASTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SOUTH OF AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
MORE-OR-LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
ELIDA HAS GOOD/EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND THERE IS
NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE CURRENT FASTER THAN NORMAL DEVELOPMENT 
SHOULD NOT CONTINUE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ELIDA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 HR AND THEN PEAK IN 48-72 HR IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
THAT ELIDA COULD STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT STAYS ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AWAY
FROM COOLER WATER.
 
34 KT WIND AND 12 FT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN GREATLY EXPANDED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A REPORT OF 36 KT AND 15 FT FROM SHIP
H9LA LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER.  AFTER CONSULTATION
WITH THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER THIS REPORT WAS DEEMED TO BE OF
GOOD QUALITY. 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 12.2N 103.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 12.5N 105.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 13.0N 107.7W    80 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 13.5N 110.2W    90 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 13.9N 112.7W    95 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 14.5N 117.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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