HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED 
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT IS NOW A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION....ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THE SYSTEM 
IS LARGE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW. 
THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOUR OR LESS. THIS IS 
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND SHIFOR AND THE INTENSITY TREND 
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.  
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH THE LIMITED VISIBLE 
IMAGES WHILE QUIKSCAT IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE BEST 
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12 BUT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT 
THIS TIME.  THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF 
DOUGLAS IS ALSO STEERING THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST. BECAUSE THE 
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN 
ANTICIPATED.   

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 11.6N  98.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 11.8N 100.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 12.5N 103.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 13.0N 106.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.0N 109.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 115.5W    75 KTS
 
 
NNNN