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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT IS NOW A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION....ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THE SYSTEM
IS LARGE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW.
THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOUR OR LESS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND SHIFOR AND THE INTENSITY TREND
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH THE LIMITED VISIBLE
IMAGES WHILE QUIKSCAT IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12 BUT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF
DOUGLAS IS ALSO STEERING THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST. BECAUSE THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN
ANTICIPATED.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 11.6N 98.8W 30 KTS
12HR VT 24/0000Z 11.8N 100.5W 40 KTS
24HR VT 24/1200Z 12.5N 103.0W 50 KTS
36HR VT 25/0000Z 13.0N 106.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 25/1200Z 14.0N 109.5W 70 KTS
72HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 115.5W 75 KTS
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