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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2002
 
DOUGLAS IS OVER 22C WATER...AND THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION IS 
DISSIPATING.  DVORAK T NUMBER INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 
45 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS 
ADVISORY.  WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BASED ON THE LAST TWO QUIKSCAT 
PASSES.
 
DOUGLAS IS MOVING AT 275/19.  STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.  
GIVEN THE RAPID MOTION OF THE CYCLONE...IT MAY LOSE ITS CLOSED 
CIRCULATION FAIRLY QUICKLY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 21.0N 126.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 21.1N 129.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 133.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N 136.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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