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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2002
 
SOME CONVECTION RETURNED TO DOUGLAS THIS EVENING...INDEED JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
AFWA AT 55 KT.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THIS.
THE CONVECTION IS ALREADY FADING AWAY...STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM...AND THE UNDERLYING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 22C.  IT IS THUS EXPECTED THAT DOUGLAS
WILL RESUME WEAKENING AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN 36-48 HR.

DOUGLAS HAS TURNED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HR AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 275/17.  STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 20.8N 124.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 21.0N 127.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N 130.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N 133.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N 137.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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