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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2002
 
DOUGLAS HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP 
CONVECTION...TYPICAL OF AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FORMER HURRICANE 
MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 
KNOTS AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A WEAK LOW OR A TROUGH IN 36 
HOURS OR SO.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING 285 DEGREES ABOUT 14 KNOTS. A TURN 
MORE TO WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR A TROUGH.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 20.7N 122.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N 124.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N 128.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 131.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N 142.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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