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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2002
 
DOUGLAS HAS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE A
WELL DEFINED AND TIGHT CIRCULATION.  T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE
AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS.  DOUGLAS IS RUNNING OUT OF
FUEL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.  IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
36 TO 48 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 
14 KNOTS. A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD 
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME A 
REMNANT LOW OR A TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 20.3N 120.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N 123.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 21.0N 126.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N 130.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N 142.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 

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