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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2002
 
DOUGLAS MAINTAINS A REMNANT OF ITS INNER EYEWALL.  SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT...BASED 
ON THE T NUMBER...FROM KGWC.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
PATTERN REMAINS GOOD AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD 
COLDER WATER AND SO THE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN 72 HOURS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THERE IS 
NO CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A TURN TO THE 
WEST AT AN INCREASED SPEED EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND 
CLOSE TO THE AVN.    
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 19.7N 119.1W    70 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 121.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 21.1N 124.6W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 21.3N 128.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     27/0600Z 21.5N 139.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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